[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Shipments Restricted and Transactions Sluggish, Chromium Market Performance Remains Weak

On October 31, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,200-8,350 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,250-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,300-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25-50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat from the previous trading day.

This week, the ferrochrome market was in the doldrums. Tsingshan's November steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome held flat at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), but retail prices continued to decline subtly, falling 100 yuan/mt (50% metal content) during the week. The main reason was the weak performance of the downstream stainless steel market, with sluggish end-use consumption demand transmitting to the ferrochrome sector, leading to a cautious attitude towards ferrochrome procurement. Ferrochrome shipments were difficult, and actual transaction volumes were limited, prompting most ferrochrome producers to lower their offers. Meanwhile, the coke market held up well recently, with the second round of price increases being implemented, leading to a slight increase in coke costs for ferrochrome plants. However, the continued decline in the price of the key raw material, chrome ore, had a more significant impact on ferrochrome production costs. Consequently, the immediate smelting cost for ferrochrome edged down slightly, leading to a loosening of support for ferrochrome prices. On the supply and demand front, ferrochrome maintained a tight balance. Production cuts and shutdowns overseas affected ferrochrome imports, while domestic producers actively maintained output, with ferrochrome production in October increasing 3.55% MoM. On the demand side, news of production cuts from some steel mills recently had a certain negative impact on ferrochrome, spreading market pessimism and fostering bearish expectations. The ferrochrome market is expected to be generally stable with a slight fall in the short term.

On the raw material side, on October 31, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port was 55-55.5 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-50 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 56-57 yuan/mtu; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 57-59 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 59.5-60.5 yuan/mtu, and the offer for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was 65-66 yuan/mtu, all flat from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the offer for 40-42% South African concentrate was $280-284/mt; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was $340-350/mt, flat from the previous trading day.

This week, the chrome ore market sentiment was sluggish, with prices steadily declining. In the spot market, although some ferrochrome producers entered the market for procurement, inquiries were mostly for rigid demand, and the pressure to drive down prices through counteroffers remained strong, resulting in limited actual transactions. Furthermore, with futures chrome ore arriving at ports continuously, port inventories showed a buildup trend. The total port inventory of chrome ore this week was 3.3241 million mt, up 1.81% WoW. The pressure on traders to sell increased, leading to slight reductions in offer prices. However, considering that recent spot prices of chrome ore have gradually approached the cost line for holders, leaving limited further downside room, some traders have held back from selling, and the sentiment to hold prices firm has also become more prominent. In the futures market, the overseas price of 40-42% South African fines remained flat again at $282/mt, with offers from major mainstream mines staying stable. However, possibly influenced by news of production cuts in downstream stainless steel, some overseas miners have shown more flexible offers, with actual transactions recorded at $280/mt. Given the generally subdued purchase willingness domestically, chrome ore futures prices may face potential downward adjustments. From a macro perspective, issues related to South Africa's chrome ore export permits and taxation remain the focus of recent market attention, pending further developments. It is expected that the chrome ore market will mainly operate in the doldrums in the short term.